Fortune favours the horse

19 October 2026 • Written by Andrew Lemon

Galilee, Arwon, Kingston Rule, Media Puzzle and Protectionist … five Melbourne Cup winners. Five different eras. One thing in common – they all won in the Chinese Year of the Horse.

Chinese tradition, the horse is a symbol of vitality, speed and forward momentum – qualities that need no translation at Flemington. The Horse is the seventh of the twelve animals in the Chinese zodiac, cycling through every twelve years. So surely, if we can work out what else they had in common, we can predict the winner of the 2026 Lexus Melbourne Cup?

Also alternating through the Chinese zodiac are five ‘elements’: Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal and Water. This means Galilee won in the year of the Fire Horse, Arwon in the Earth Horse year, Kingston Rule in Metal, Media Puzzle in Water, Protectionist in Wood. This year we return to Fire. And that matters – because the Fire Horse is no ordinary Horse year. While the zodiac cycles every twelve years, the Fire Horse appears only once every sixty years.

GALILEE 1966: Fire

Galilee was definitely a Fire Horse. He set the tracks alight. He branded greatness upon the name J.B. Cummings. The young Adelaide trainer had quinellaed the previous Melbourne Cup with mare Light Fingers and stallion Ziema in a photo finish. Now Galilee proved that this was no fluke as he beat Light Fingers by two lengths. Two Cup quinellas in two years! A year later Bart had his third Melbourne Cup with Red Handed. They called him ‘The Cups King’. Four decades later his tally reached an impossible twelve. When reporters asked him to nominate the best, he would say the bay gelding from New Zealand, Galilee. This Fire Horse won 18 races including a Toorak Handicap, Caulfield Cup, CB Fisher Plate, VRC Queen’s Plate and the Sydney Cup. He stands in the Australian Racing Hall of Fame.

ARWON 1978: Earth

Does that mean a champion always wins in the Year of the Horse? Arwon, of the Earth Horse year, was a champion in the eyes of his owners, trainer, jockey and backers when he beat a lacklustre field in 1978. Not that his win was a surprise: Arwon earned his Cup victory after a narrow defeat in Sydney’s Metropolitan, a win at Caulfield in the Herbert Power and a close second in the Caulfield Cup. Later he was placed in both the Sydney Cup and the Perth Cup and he won the 1980 Sandown Cup. Arwon had one previous name (he raced as ‘Flash Guy’ in New Zealand), several previous owners and three previous trainers before he came to George Hanlon in Victoria, certainly a champion mentor. And his champion Cup jockey, Harry White, shares with Bobbie Lewis the riding record of four Melbourne Cup wins.

KINGSTON RULE 1990: Metal

Kingston Rule won in the Metal Horse year. He shone. In the era before top stallions regularly shuttled between the northern and southern hemisphere breeding seasons, owner David Hains had sent his champion mare Rose of Kingston (winner of the VRC Oaks and AJC Derby) to the USA to be mated with 1973 Triple Crown Winner, Secretariat, a turf legend. Kingston Rule was the result. This handsome chestnut stallion was lightly raced with four wins and six minor placings in just 18 career starts. He won the Moonee Valley Cup ahead of his Melbourne Cup triumph. Ridden by Darren Beadman, he set a race record, 3:16.30, which has stood for an astonishing 36 years. Could it be broken in this, the current Year of the Horse? By the bye, Kingston Rule was trained by Bart Cummings – the eighth of his twelve Melbourne Cup wins.

MEDIA PUZZLE 2002: Water

Tears were shed in 2002 when Damien Oliver, just days after the death of his brother Jason in a racing accident in Perth, piloted Media Puzzle to Melbourne Cup victory. Eyes were on the jockey, and on Irish trainer, Dermot Weld. But what of the horse who came from across the seas to make it all possible? His immediate pathway to victory was via success in the Geelong Cup. The earlier part of his career had included modest Irish wins early, and a fourth in the Group 1 St Leger in York. By the time he reached Australia there had been long breaks in the spelling paddocks, and a succession of dismal runs, but he had shown enough promise in training to warrant the trip. At the end, his career tally was six wins, including his two in Australia. There is one link with the previous Year of the Horse winner: Media Puzzle’s time in 2002 was second only to that of Kingston Rule.

PROTECTIONIST 2014: Wood

Nothing wooden about this horse. His winning time was the best since Media Puzzle and Kingston Rule. He was the first Cup winner bred and trained in Germany, prepared by illustrious horseman Andreas Wöhler. Raced sparingly, he had scored four wins from his first eight starts – seven in Germany, one in France in the venerable 3000 metres Group 2 Prix Kergolay in Deauville. As part owner with breeder Dr Christoph Bergler, Protectionist reached Melbourne in September 2014. He ran fourth in the Herbert Power at Caulfield and stormed home to win the Melbourne Cup. Ryan Moore, the British champion jockey, travelled here specially for the race. Protectionist then stayed in Australia with a new stable but repeatedly failed to reproduce his best. Returning to Germany in 2016 he came good again, capping his career with three successive wins including the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin.

WHO WILL BURN BRIGHTEST IN 2026?

Fast times, slow times. Short names, long names. Different births, different eras. Nimblefoot (1870), The Assyrian (1882), Patron (1894), Poseidon (1906), Night Watch (1918), Phar Lap (1930), Colonus (1942), Wodalla (1954) — no formula links them, only greatness.