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Derby Day: what it takes to win

30 October 2024 Written by Trent Crebbin - Racing and Sports

We look at the historical winning standards of the three Group 1's on Penfolds Victoria Derby Day according to Racing and Sports’ ratings.

The Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks off with one of the great days on the Australian racing calendar with Penfolds Victoria Derby Day showcasing three unique Group 1 races.

Penfolds Victoria Derby (2500m)

The Penfolds Victoria Derby (2500m) was first run in 1855, but for our purposes we’ll focus on the past ten winners, which can be seen below in order of the Racing and Sports rating they ran.

RATING

WINNER

YEAR

116

TARZINO (NZ)

2015

116

PRIZED ICON

2016

116

HITOTSU

2021

115

RIFF ROCKET

2023

113

WARNING

2019

111

EXTRA BRUT

2018

110

ACE HIGH

2017

110

PREFERMENT (NZ)

2014

110

MANZOICE

2022

108

JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)

2020

This year, the highest rated horse going in will be El Castello, who ran to a rating of 110 to win the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m). He is the only horse in the field to currently meet the likely winning standard.

Kingofwallstreet ran to 104 when winning the Group 3 Caulfield Classic (2000m) while Red Aces has run to ratings of 100 at his past two starts.

Keeneland dipped off his peak as favourite in the Caulfield Classic but also ran to 104 prior in the Listed Super Impose Stakes (1800m) at Flemington, a similar profile (albeit rated lower) than Riff Rocket last year.

The traditional Derby leadups in Melbourne have been run at well below average tempos, and it would not surprise if something from one of those races improved drastically in a more genuine test of stamina.

TAB Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)

One of the grand final Group 1 races for fillies and mares, the TAB Empire Rose Stakes (1600m), named after the 1988 Melbourne Cup winner, was won last year by Pride Of Jenni, who announced herself with a very strong 121 rating win.

This year’s edition looks a deep race with a number of mares already established at the level that is typically required to win it.

RATING

WINNER

YEAR

121

PRIDE OF JENNI

2023

118

MELODY BELLE (NZ)

2019

115

POLITENESS

2015

115

COLETTE

2021

115

SHOALS

2017

115

BONARIA

2014

114

SHILLELAGH (NZ)

2018

114

ICEBATH (NZ)

2022

112

I AM A STAR (NZ)

2016

111

SHOUT THE BAR

2020

Atishu holds a peak rating of 120, achieved when winning the Group 1 Champions Stakes (2000m) last year, and having run to 118 when second to Pride Of Jenni in the Empire Rose the week prior.

Also with peak form around Pride Of Jenni is Amelia’s Jewel, who ran to 118 when beating that mare in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley. She ran to 116 last start behind Ceolwulf, her best rating since that Moonee Valley win.

They are the two mares with established ratings at the level it takes to win a typical Empire Rose, but no doubt others can measure up. Plenty Of Ammo ran to 112 last week at just her seventh start and can run to a new peak again on Saturday.

Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

The third Group One on the card is the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), which has become the premier sprinting three-year-old race on the Australian calendar.

We’ve seen some high-rating performances on the Racing and Sports scale in the past ten years with top colts Flying Artie, Home Affairs and Exceedance all running to 125.

RATING

WINNER

YEAR

125

FLYING ARTIE

2016

125

HOME AFFAIRS

2021

125

EXCEEDANCE

2019

122

JAPONISME

2015

122

BRAZEN BEAU

2014

120

MERCHANT NAVY

2017

120

IN SECRET

2022

120

SUNLIGHT

2018

119

OZZMOSIS

2023

116

SEPTEMBER RUN

2020

This year’s edition looks strong, and a few horses are already rated right up to the typical winning standard. If they run up to their best, or even improve on what is typically a grand final for these horses, this year’s edition should stack up nicely.

Growing Empire holds a peak rating of 121, achieved when nosed out by Southport Tycoon in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley. The Poseidon Stakes winner down the Flemington straight has since run to 117 in The Everest behind Bella Nipotina.

Missing The Everest was Traffic Warden who was scratched at the gates. He was narrowly beaten in the Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) prior running to a rating of 118.

Lady Of Camelot was good at big odds when fourth in The Everest running to 117 and holds a peak of 118, achieved in the Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m) as a two-year-old.

No horse has won the Golden Slipper/Coolmore Stud Stakes double since Sepoy, who was rated a whopping 128 at his best.

Chris Waller brings Coolmore colt Switzerland down off a big win in the Group 2 Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) where he ran to a rating of 116, while the in-form Bellatrix Star earns a crack at Group 1 company having also run to 116 last start when beating the older horses.

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