Royal Ascot’s Melbourne Cup contenders

Even in very recent years, the Willie Mullins’ pair off Vauban and Absurde, the former now with Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, have been highly prominent in Melbourne Cup betting.

In 2023, former Grade 1 winning hurdler Vauban won the Copper Horse Handicap (2816m) on the opening day of Royal Ascot, beating stablemate Absurde, and there are certainly similarities with winners this year that could well take their place on the first Tuesday of November.

Mullins has come agonisingly close to winning the Melbourne Cup, running second to Prince Of Penzance with Max Dynamite in 2015, and the master jumps’ trainer could have another pair of former hurdlers off Royal Ascot once again.

Five-year-old gelding Ethical Diamond was the first, winning the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (2414m) impressively on Friday, while the OTI Racing owned Sober was a dominant five-length winner of the Queen Alexandra Stakes (4355m) to round out the carnival.

Ethical Diamond won a maiden hurdle at Punchestown in Mullins’ home country of Ireland earlier this year and has improved on the flat after finishing fourth to Crystal Black in this same race last year, which was also won by Melbourne Cup placegetter Okita Soushi back in 2023.

In winning the Duke Of Edinburgh, Ethical Diamond posted a new peak rating at Racing And Sports, coming in at 110. For comparison, ran to 109 in 2023 while Crystal Black also went 110 last year.

Another of Mullins’ jumper-switched-flat stayers is the OTI Racing owned Sober, who have a large presence in Australia and also went desperately close to winning a Melbourne Cup with Bauer, who went down by a nose to Viewed in 2008.

A six-year-old by Camelot, Sober has already had good success on the flat before going jumping, winning the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (3100m) and Group 2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) in 2023.

For a period, the Prix Kergorlay was one of the best references for a Melbourne Cup, with subsequent Cup winners Americain victorious in 2010 and Protectionist in 2014.

Sober was rated 118 by Racing And Sports when winning the Prix Kergorlay compared to Americain 116 and Protectionist 120.

While his form faltered in 2024, his win in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Ascot was dominant, running to a mark of 112 and connections have flagged their interest.

Victoria Racing Club’s Executive General Manager Leigh Jordan has been in contact with Willie Mullins who wants nothing more than to win the Melbourne Cup and says the master trainer would love to bring the pair to Flemington.

“Ethical Diamond and Sober are both likely (chances),” Jordon said.

“Obviously with Willie, I've been sort of ‘what's happening’ and he's been giving me the thumbs up that that's the way he wants to go.

“He's still got a few things to do. Ethical Diamond's not passed the ballot yet and probably wouldn't have enough weight.

“Sober, he won at Kergorlay a couple of years ago, I don't know whether he's passed the ballot actually, the race he won won’t do that.

“He knows the drill about getting there. Willie's got plenty of ammo, he's got Absurde as well who in the same ownership as Ethical Diamond.

“Ethical Diamond ran favourite odds-on in that race last year. I was there at the time and the Heffernan's that own the horse said they wanted to bring it out but he was disappointing.

“It’s probably good he's waited a year, more mature the horse, so he's a definite chance.

The other Ascot winner who has been touted as a possible Melbourne Cup contender is the John & Thady Gosden trained French Master, a beautifully bred, lightly raced four-year-old by Frankel out of a Listed winning Sea The Stars mare.

John Gosden has only had two runners in a Melbourne Cup, finishing ninth with Muntahaa in 2018 and 12^th with Geelong Cup winner Gatewood in 2014.

French Master won the Copper Horse Handicap (2816m) on the opening day of Royal Ascot, scoring by 2-½ lengths from well back off a fast tempo.

A new peak Racing And Sports rating of 113 there is below the likes of Vauban’s 7-½ length, 118 rating win in the race two years ago but with just six starts to his name, French Master still has plenty of upside and is certainly a horse of interest for the VRC.

“French Master, the Wathnan (owned) horse, our track manager Liam O’Keefe is over there, he's done a bit with Qatar and touched touch base with them.

“He also needs to get past the ballot and look at his rating, there’s probably still a bit more work to be done with him.

“I always think Ascot's a bit of a fork in the road, and then really from there, trainers will start thinking about their summer period, second half of the season. 

“Ascot, very much, is like a premiership for most trainers. So it's probably from now on where you're going to get a bit more of a guide on who's a chance.”

Sober is rated a $15 chance across markets for the November 4 feature with Ethical Diamond at $18.