A closer look at the Victoria Derby

Observer might be poised to start one of the shortest-priced favourites the Howden Victoria Derby in recent years, but if there is one feature race the Godolphin team will not be taking anything for granted in, it is the Derby.

The 2500-metre Group 1, which will be run at Flemington this Saturday, has tormented Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's operation like few others.

Godolphin has been represented in the Derby 10 times, by 17 horses, since Shiekh Mohammed took over Jack and Bob Ingham's Woodlands operation in 2008 and its best result has been a trip to the runner-up stall.

But there have been five of them.

Induna gave a glimpse of the anguish the race was set to provide when he was a good thing licked in 2011, while Complacent, Nozomi, Etymology and Alegron are Sheikh Mohammed's other second placegetters.

Godolphin has also supplied third placegetters Retrieve (2010) and Astoria (2017).

Retrieve ($4), Induna ($5.50) and Alegron ($6) all started second favourite, as did Aramayo ($6) when sixth in 2018, while Godolphin also had Complacent ($7) and Astoria ($8) and Pericles ($8) start $8 or shorter.

Despite that, Godolphin has never had as good a chance as this year, one that has already seen it win a Derby that had proven elusive.

Sovereignty became Sheikh Mohammed's first Kentucky Derby winner when he won the famed American race in May.

Along with Observer, Godolphin will on Saturday be represented by Options, who is on the fourth line of betting at around $14 but had a stint at the head of Derby betting earlier in spring.

Observer took a stranglehold on favouritism after kicking sand in the faces of his rivals in last week's Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase and was as short as $2.10 on Thursday morning.

That has him in line to start the shortest-priced favourite since Whobegotyou ran second at $1.75 favourite in 2008.

'Whobe' is one of only two horses to start odds-on in the Derby since the turn of the millennium, joined by Helenus, who won at $1.90 in 2002.

The shortest-priced favourite since Whobegotyou was Riff Rocket, who won at $2.20 two years ago, joining Tarzino ($2.90 in 2015), Ace High ($7 in 2017) and Hitotsu ($4 in 2021) as the only favourites to score since 2008.

Nine have started sub-$3 in that time, with second placegetters Sacred Elixir ($2.70) and Sharp 'N' Smart ($2.90) the only others to run a place.

Hampton Court ($2.45), Manawanui ($2.50), Dundeel ($2.70) and Thinkin' Big ($2.90) are the others to start sub-$3 with Manawanui's sixth placing in the 2011 the best result.

Helenus, Whobegotyou, Tarzino, Sacred Elixir, Manawanui and Dundeel all sealed favouritism via the Vase, which has a reputation as the premier Derby guide, but its influence has waned of late.

It has been 19 years since the last of the five horses did the double – Efficient in 2006 – and nine of the 15 winners between 2002 and 2016 came through it, but Johnny Get Angry (2020) is the only Derby winner in the past eight years to contest the Vase.